WARSAW (Reuters) – Poland’s plans for a new generation of gas-fired power plants would make it impossible for it to meet net zero emissions by 2050 and cost taxpayers $4.4 billion, research by thinktank Carbon Tracker showed on Thursday.
Poland, mainly reliant on coal, plans to more than double its existing gas-fired power generation capacity to over 8 gigawatts (GW) by 2030, viewing gas as a transition fuel before switching to nuclear and renewables.
Carbon Tracker analysed the financial viability of five planned gas plants with combined capacity of 3.7 GW due to begin operation between 2023 and 2027, which would more than double Poland’s current gas-fired capacity.
It calculated the levelised cost of energy – the average cost of each unit of energy generated over the lifetime of each plant – for new renewables and for the five gas projects.
The report said that all five projects will be more costly investments than either new onshore wind, offshore wind or solar farms.
Renewables supported by battery storage will be able to respond to peaks and troughs of demand, providing flexibility comparable to new gas plants. Solar with storage will be cheaper than gas from 2024 and onshore wind with storage from 2025.
If the gas plants run for a 30-year lifespan it would be impossible for Poland to reach an EU-wide goal of net zero emissions by 2050. To meet that goal, they would have to close after an average seven years, costing developers more than $200 million, the report said.
Poland has said it supports the EU’s ambitious climate targets but reaching them should be “safe for society and beneficial for the economy”.
The gas plants are only economically viable to build due to much higher subsidies than other European countries, which would cost taxpayers around $4.4 billion, and the plans should be cancelled, Carbon Tracker’s report said.
“With wholesale gas market prices having reached record highs over the past 12 months and rising political tensions in Europe increasing the threat that supplies could be weaponised or placed under international sanctions, now is not the time for nations to be increasing their dependence on gas,” said Jonathan Sims and Lorenzo Sani, power and utilities analysts at Carbon Tracker.
In its energy policy plan, Poland has said there is potential for around 6 GW of offshore wind to be developed by 2030, rising to 11 GW by 2040. It currently has nearly 7 GW of installed onshore wind capacity and some 6.7 GW of solar.
(Reporting by Marek Strzelecki; editing by Nina Chestney, Kirsten Donovan)
