(Reuters) – The United States are favourites to win the Women’s World Cup but their bid for a third straight title faces a strong challenge from Europe’s top sides as well as co-hosts Australia, according to Nielsen’s Gracenote.
The Americans’ chances of claiming their fifth victory overall are only 18%. Sweden, Germany, France and England are the main contenders, with a 58% chance the winner will come from this quintet.
Gracenote’s forecast, based on approximately one million simulations of the tournament, gave Olympic silver medallists and third-ranked Sweden the second best chance of winning (11%).
“Our simulations confirm that World Cup 2023 is likely to be a very open and competitive tournament,” said Gracenote’s head of analysis Simon Gleave.
“There is a strong challenge to champions and favourites USA from Europe and Australia’s home advantage has boosted them to the seventh most likely team to win the competition.”
Germany (11%), France (9%), European champions England (8%), Spain (8%), Australia (8%), Brazil (7%) and reigning Olympic champions Canada (6%) round out the favourites.
The eight most likely quarter-finalists are Spain, the U.S., France, Germany, Sweden, England, Japan and Australia in that order, while the most likely semi-finalists are the U.S., Sweden, Germany and France.
The most likely World Cup final is U.S. v Germany at just under 6%, with the U.S. v France, England, Australia and Brazil – in that order – rounding out the top five most likely finals.
(Reporting by Lori Ewing; Editing by Peter Rutherford)
