By Kevin Buckland
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland
Just as markets start to get comfortable with the idea of a dovish Fed, ugly U.S. producer inflation figures threaten to crash the party, setting up a nervy wait for a consumer price reading later today.
For now, the consistent and – for equity investors – very welcome refrain from Fed officials that caution is warranted before further rate rises has drowned out any concerns about data.
Asia-Pacific stocks have picked up the baton from Wall Street, with gains far exceeding 1% for Japan’s Nikkei and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng.
But just how quickly markets turned at the start of the week shows how quickly they could turn again. Despite the dovish trimmings, the core Fed message remains that rates will rise as far as they have to in order to rein in inflation.
While the prospect of U.S. yields returning back toward 16-year peaks above 5% is certainly a risk, there’s a sense that the ceiling may be lower now, with safe assets currently sought after against geopolitical risks.
Fed regional bank heads Lorie Logan, Susan Collins and Raphael Bostic have the chance to air their views in remarks at separate events today.
Meanwhile, Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill will be speaking at an IMF meeting in Washington, on the same day boss Andrew Bailey travels to Marrakesh for the IMF/World Bank annual meetings.
It’s a big day for British data as well, with GDP and industrial production due first thing.
The BoE kept interest rates on hold at its meeting last month for the first time since it began its tightening cycle in December 2021, but traders make it a coin toss for another hike by the end of the first quarter next year.
Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:
UK GDP, industrial production (both Aug)
U.S. CPI (Sep), initial jobless claims (week ending Oct 7)
U.S. 30-year Treasury auction
(Reporting by Kevin Buckland. Editing by Sam Holmes)
