A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook
Just one-tenth of a percentage point was enough to trigger big moves in global markets that were some of the sharpest we’ve seen this year.
The U.S. CPI came in flat for last month, against consensus expectations of a 0.1% rise. The core rate, at 0.2%, also bettered forecasts for 0.3%. A high number would have amplified the Fed’s recent hawkish tone, so the surprise move in the opposite direction has had a dramatic effect.
Ten-year and two-year Treasury yields dropped 20 basis points and the dollar marked its steepest selloff in a year, highlighting how much markets’ expectations – and cash – were riding on the data.
A pivot from hikes to cuts is now priced for May in the interest rate futures markets, with a 30% chance it happens as soon as March.
Next up is British inflation data, due at 0700 GMT. Expectations are for a big shift down for October, mainly due to falling energy prices, with annual headline inflation seen slipping below 5% for the first time since 2021.
October’s purchasing manager’s index survey, however, showed services companies putting through their steepest price rises in three months.
Sterling broke through its 200-day moving average on Tuesday as the dollar slumped, and a sticky inflation reading could propel further gains.
But geopolitics could spoil things.
In the Middle East, Israel raided the Al Shifa hospital in Gaza, health officials told Al Jazeera.
Chinese President Xi Jinping is making his first visit to the United States in six years and is due to meet President Joe Biden on Wednesday morning, in what U.S. officials have billed as a chance to reduce friction in the powers’ relations.
Meanwhile, good news from China added to the broad cheer. Retail sales beat expectations, industrial output picked up and the central bank poured liquidity into the banking system, which together gave a boost to commodity prices.
Iron ore scaled 2-1/2 year peaks, and Singapore futures are up almost 20% in just over a month.
Chipmaker Infineon and troubled energy company Siemens Energy post earnings on Wednesday, although the latter’s numbers are likely to be overshadowed by Tuesday’s promise of an $8 billion government backstop from Germany.
U.S. retail sales figures are due at 1330 GMT. A drop is forecast, while a strong reading could dampen the exuberance over rate cut expectations.
Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:
Earnings: Infineon, Siemens Energy, Alstom, Target
Events: Xi-Biden meeting expected in San Francisco Bay Area
Economics: UK CPI, U.S. retail sales
(Reporting by Tom Wesbtrook; Editing by Edmund Klamann)
