By Krisztina Fenyo, Marton Monus and Gergely Szakacs
SZOMBATHELY, Hungary, April 6 (Reuters) – As Hungary heads towards a pivotal election, voters who came of age under Prime Minister Viktor Orban have emerged as a key group driving support for the opposition, with some saying they will leave the country if the veteran leader is re-elected.
Orban, 62, a eurosceptic nationalist, is facing the biggest threat to his 16-year grip on power, with most opinion polls showing centre-right rival Peter Magyar and his Tisza Party on course to defeat him in Sunday’s election.
The media-savvy Magyar, 45, is proving an attractive alternative for many younger voters disenchanted with Orban’s right-wing Fidesz party, sociologists and pollsters say.
“Fidesz’s thinking no longer understands young people,” sociologist Daniel Oross said.
Full-time university students are an especially key demographic, he said, noting that if they were to vote as a bloc they could lift a party above the 5% parliamentary threshold.
EMIGRANT NUMBERS RISING
The number of Hungarian emigrants has risen sharply since Russia’s 2022 invasion of neighbouring Ukraine, which had a particularly negative impact on Hungary’s economy and triggered the European Union’s strongest inflationary surge.
EU surveys show most working-age movers are aged between 20 and 34 and while many return, the balance is negative, driven in part by what sociologists say is a lack of prospects in Hungary, one of the poorest members of the bloc.
Although issues such as a lack of affordable housing afflict young people across Europe, many others are home-grown, such as corruption or the quality of Hungary’s education, which has triggered several protests since Orban’s re-election in 2022.
For some, like 18-year-old Tamara Pohly, Sunday’s election will be a watershed moment.
“I would not like to live in a country, where people voting for Fidesz or standing for the values of Fidesz are in a majority,” she said in an outdoor cafe in Budapest.
Pohly, who has attended several student rallies against Orban, wants to become an industrial designer and says she will move abroad after graduating if he stays in power.
ORBAN COURTING YOUTH VOTE
Orban has scrapped income tax for under-25s and launched a 3% subsidised mortgage loan scheme to help first-time buyers get on the housing ladder amid the EU’s steepest rise in house prices under his rule.
“Even in the shadow of war, Hungary has done everything for young Hungarians so they can… have a successful, independent life,” Orban said at a campaign stop in the southern Hungarian town of Szentes.
But his frustration has occasionally boiled over, labelling young people’s opposition to his leadership a “phony rebellion” or telling them they should be thankful for the measures his government has taken to support them.
Fidesz, originally launched as an opposition youth movement during the Cold War, is currently backed by just 8% of voters aged between 18 and 29, based on a Median survey, or 22% in the wider 18-39 age group, according to Zavecz Research.
Opposition leader Magyar has vowed to unblock billions of euros for Hungary suspended by the EU over what it says are Orban’s erosion of democratic freedoms. Magyar says he wants to use the funds partly to boost education and affordable housing, key concerns for younger voters.
‘GRUMPY OLD MEN’
Zsolt Istvan Zoldi, 21, a supporter of the far-right Our Homeland, which could become a kingmaker if it enters parliament, has no plans to leave Hungary but also wants change.
“Among young people, Fidesz is seen as a group of grumpy old men who are corrupt and hidebound,” said Zoldi after a kickboxing training session.
Zoldi said he was most concerned by the “catastrophic” state of public services, corruption and Orban’s domination of traditional media.
Our Homeland says it would expand university dormitories, launch a rental housing construction programme, and cut red tape to help start-ups and discourage the young from emigrating.
Not all young people are opposed to Orban, however.
Gergo Farkas, 18, praises the veteran leader’s experience, honed by multiple crises, his strong ties to world leaders and support for traditional Christian values.
“He is a genuine Hungarian leader,” Farkas said at an Orban rally in the western town of Szombathely, adding that anybody planning to leave Hungary over politics was effectively guilty of “treason”.
“A true Hungarian should not leave because of any given government,” he said. “We will have another election in four years and then you can try again.”
(Writing by Gergely SzakacsEditing by Gareth Jones)
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