By Martin Petty
(Reuters) – Cambodia holds an election on Sunday that is almost certain to be won by the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) of Prime Minister Hun Sen, extending its nearly four-decade grip on power.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN ON SUNDAY?
About 9.7 million of Cambodia’s 16 million people are eligible to vote in the election for a national assembly. Polling stations will open from 7 a.m (0000 GMT) until 3 p.m. and a preliminary result is expected Sunday evening.
Aside from CPP, there are 17 parties running, but most are obscure and none have the clout or resources to mount a challenge to the ruling party, which won all 125 seats assembly seats in the 2018 election. A repeat of that is expected.
WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OPPOSITION?
CPP encountered its biggest challenge to its rule in the 2013 election when it won less than half of the votes, closely followed by the newly formed opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), reflecting CNRP’s popularity among the youth and trade unions and some disenchantment with CPP.
In the following years, CPP used its influence over courts and democratic institutions to hobble its rival, culminating in CNRP’s dissolution nine months before the 2018 election, for its alleged plot to overthrow Hun Sen’s government. The CNRP’s leader was arrested on treason charges.
Large numbers of opposition figures fled into exile and hundreds were convicted of crimes mostly in absentia in mass trials.
From CNRP’s ashes rose the Candlelight Party, but its members have endured a campaign of intimidation and harassment, according to human rights groups. The party was disqualified from the election on a technicality over a registration document and this week, two of its members were arrested for incitement after they urged voters to destroy their ballots.
IS THE CPP POPULAR?
The CPP’s ability to maintain peace, growth and stability after the 1970s Khmer Rouge genocide and ensuing civil war remains its biggest selling point, particularly in rural areas where many Cambodians have witnessed a relative transformation in what was once among the world’s poorest countries.
Under 70-year-old Hun Sen, Cambodia has achieved lower middle-income status, with improvements in health, education and infrastructure. Its textiles manufacturing sector, mainly for famous Western brands, has boomed, creating vital jobs, while the economy grew on average 7.7% between 1998 and 2019.
WHY IS THIS ELECTION SO IMPORTANT TO HUN SEN?
Hun Sen’s long-running crackdown and his disregard for international concern about the election’s credibility is most likely a move to ensure a smooth path for his eldest son, Hun Manet, to succeed him in what has so far been a carefully calibrated transition of power.
Hun Manet, 45, is making his debut in Sunday’s election and needs to win a legislative seat to be eligible for prime minister. The election gives him a chance to earn legitimacy with the public and he had been expected to take over sometime during the five-year term, with his father retaining influence by becoming CPP chief in the interim.
Hun Sen had given no timeframe for the transition until Thursday, when in an interview with Chinese television he said Hun Manet could become premier within a month of the election.
WHO IS HUN MANET?
A graduate of the West Point military academy in the United States, Hun Manet has risen quickly through the ranks of Cambodia’s armed forces and has served as head of counter-terrorism, deputy chief of his father’s bodyguard unit, army chief and deputy military commander.
Hun Manet is also highly educated, with a masters degree from New York University and a doctorate from Britain’s Bristol University, both in economics, in stark contrast to his father, who has no formal education.
But little is known about Hun Manet’s vision for Cambodia. He has kept a low international profile and has rarely given interviews.
The transition will be closely watched abroad to see whether his experiences with British and American education and democracy will lead to a shift in the authoritarian status quo, and improve Cambodia’s testy relationship with the West.
(Editing by Alison Williams)
