A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland
An element of calm has returned to markets as a wild week winds down, with European and U.S. stock futures pointing overall higher on Friday following the frenetic selling of the previous two days.
Asia-Pacific equity benchmarks were overall flat to higher, with some weakness in Chinese markets contrasting with robust gains for Australia and South Korea.
Taiwan was an unhappy exception, though, with a 3.4% slide – a delayed reaction to the global tech rout after markets there were shuttered the previous two days by a typhoon.
Currency markets stabilised as well, with the yen finding a home around 154 per dollar following its surge from a three-decade low near 162 just over two weeks ago. On Thursday, it reached a nearly two-month peak of 151.945 per dollar.
Investors were frantically unwinding long-held bearish yen bets and/or seeking a safe haven play with the Japanese currency, spurred by a spate of weak U.S. economic data, the global equity sell-off, and growing speculation of a Bank of Japan rate hike next week – not to mention the helping hand of some deft currency intervention by Tokyo.
IG analyst Tony Sycamore said there’s “a brick wall of demand” for dollars around 152 yen that he expects to hold firm until Wednesday of next week, when both the BOJ and Fed decide policy. “After that, all bets are off.”
The dollar also drew a modicum of macro-related support from faster-than-expected U.S. GDP growth in data released overnight, alleviating fears that the economic expansion was at risk of ending abruptly.
However, a cooling of price pressures keeps bets alive for a September Fed cut, and the dollar is edging lower against the likes of the euro and sterling heading into the European morning.
There’s little in the way of economic data or earnings reports to shake up markets in European hours, but the U.S. PCE deflators – a favourite inflation measure of the Fed’s – could inject some additional volatility before the weekend.
Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:
-US PCE price index (June)
-US earnings include 3M, Bristol Myers Squibb, Colgate Palmolive
(By Kevin Buckland; Editing by Edmund Klamann)
Comments