(Reuters) – Following are reactions to Shigeru Ishiba’s election as leader of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party, setting him up to take over as prime minister next week:
TAKESHI NIINAMI, CEO, SUNTORY, CHAIRMAN, KEIZAI DOYUKAI BUSINESS LOBBY
“This (LDP) presidential election was an important opportunity not only for party members but also for the general public to restore their faith in politics. However, it did not lead to a resolution of the public’s distrust of the LDP, which was sparked by the political funding scandal. We hope that the new president will demonstrate leadership in resolving the issue of “politics and money”, including the way the Political Funds Control Law should be.
MASAKAZU TOKURA, CHAIRMAN, KEIDANREN BUSINESS LOBBY, TOKYO
“We welcome the appointment of Shigeru Ishiba as the new LDP President. Ishiba is an experienced politician… well versed in a wide range of policies, including regional revitalization and the defence sectors. In an era of mounting domestic and international challenges, he is suited as the leader to plough through change, and we have high hopes for his capabilities.”
NAKA MATSUZAWA, CHIEF MACRO STRATEGIST, NOMURA SECURITIES
“This is the victory of structural reform camp in the LDP versus the pro-Abenomics camp in the party… What Ishiba is lacking so far is a growth strategy, so that might work against the stock market for now. I personally liked him the most among the three. He’s a very seasoned, well-integrated politician and has very deep thoughts on the economic policies, and he’s very keen to revitalise the local economies. The key for Ishiba now is to bring in some of those members of the LDP members for economic policy-making or even the economic ministers, finance ministers, so that those growth strategies can be implemented.”
FRED NEUMANN, CHIEF ASIA ECONOMIST AT HSBC, HONG KONG
“The result of the LDP election will not have an overly large influence on the BOJ’s policy path going forward. Markets will now await a possible announcement in the coming weeks or months of a general election, and any fiscal stimulus measures the new administration might contemplate. Expectations that the Bank of Japan was on course to tighten policy again before the end of the year were always misplaced.”
SHOKI OMORI, CHIEF JAPAN DESK STRATEGIST, MIZUHO SECURITIES
“All the expectations for risk-on, reflationary policy have faded as Mr. Ishiba became the next prime minister. Obviously many investors were expecting longer easy policy and thus got back on possible carry trade or shorted yen, but all the shorts are being unwound. I see many shorters, particularly speculators and fast money got burnt. The BOJ will do their own business going ahead looking at data.”
YUSUKE AOKI, ECONOMIST, INDEED HIRING LAB, TOKYO
“Policies (Ishiba has proposed) such as measures to decrease the number of non-regular workers and economy-bolstering plans for rural areas would be able to contribute to economic growth in areas that have lagged behind… On the other hand, it is still unclear which funds he is planning to use and how these measures will be supported.”
TORU SUEHIRO, CHIEF ECONOMIST, DAIWA SECURITIES
“As hopes were running high for Sanae Takaichi, who called for monetary easing, in the stock market, this will likely generate a pessimistic mood. But with the party election now behind us, attention will soon shift to the dissolution of parliament’s lower chamber and a general election. If Ishiba, who can count on some support from those who support the opposition and those who have no particular party affiliation, manages to win high support rates in opinion polls, voices that speak highly of his policy will get louder. Given the upcoming election, it is unlikely he will make the kind of comment that calls for monetary tightening that would cause a slide in share prices.
SHOTARO MORI, SENIOR ECONOMIST, SBI SHINSEI BANK, TOKYO
“Based on Ishiba’s stance that he would expect the Bank of Japan to carry out the normalisation of monetary policy at a speed that does not cool the economy, he seems to be positive about the normalisation of the monetary policy and returning to a world with interest rates. Basically, the BOJ’s judgment on the economy and prices will be respected, and interest rates will be raised at the central bank’s discretion.”
KAZUTAKA MAEDA, ECONOMIST, MEIJI YASUDA RESEARCH INSTITUTE
“The Ishiba victory will give the Bank of Japan leeway in making policy decisions, as monetary policy is unlikely to be his area of focus. We expect the BOJ to raise rates again in December and the result of the ruling party election is not changing our outlook… The influence of the former premier Shinzo Abe’s ‘Abenomics’ stimulus policies will fade away further as a result of the loss by Sanae Takaichi, who vowed to succeed the policies.”
SAISUKE SAKAI, SENIOR ECONOMIST, MIZUHO RESEARCH & TECHNOLOGIES, TOKYO
“Ishiba’s policy is the exact opposite of Takaichi’s. While Takaichi pursued aggressive fiscal and monetary easing, Ishiba argued about financial income tax and higher corporate tax, which he proposed as tools to raise the sustainability of Japan’s fiscal and of social security systems.”
MIN JOO KANG, SENIOR ECONOMIST FOR SOUTH KOREA AND JAPAN, ING, SEOUL
“Ishiba’s victory is a relief for the BOJ as he generally supports the BOJ’s policy normalisation. Moreover, his fiscal policy should focus on reviving the regional economy, which should also support sustainable inflation and growth. We believe that the upcoming inflation results and the Fed’s interest rate actions will be the key to gauge the BOJ’s next move.”
BRAD GLOSSERMAN, DEPUTY DIRECTOR, CENTER FOR RULE-MAKING STRATEGY AT TAMA UNIVERSITY
“A change in nuclear policy? No, I don’t think so. Japan needs nuclear energy and the inability of the country to effectively wean itself from nuclear power despite the (Fukushima) accident a decade ago is proof that Japan doesn’t have many alternatives. There needs to be a conversation with the public about what the risks really are and how to best protect against future accidents. But Japan needs energy, the world needs less greenhouse gas emissions and Japan wants to remain at the forefront of nuclear technology. That requires Japan to have a nuclear energy policy that is forward leaning.”
JOSEPH KRAFT, FINANCIAL POLITICAL ANALYST, RORSCHACH ADVISORY, TOKYO
Ishiba “was talking about re-examining the defence treaty… He’s even suggesting that he wants to be equal partners with the U.S. – which isn’t going to happen… He’s just shooting from the hip saying whatever comes to his mind. Once he forms a government a cabinet and gets better minds in there assuming he can choose the right people I think he’ll moderate his position a little bit more.”
(Reporting by Rocky Swift, Kantaro Komiya, Brigid Riley, Ankur Banerjee, Kevin Buckland, Mariko Katsumura, Kentaro Sugiyama, Takahiko Wada, Makiko Yamazaki, Katya Golubkova and Tim Kelly; Compiled by William Mallard)
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