By Tom Perry, Maya Gebeily, Laila Bassam and Emilie Madi
BEIRUT, March 27 (Reuters) – War between Israel and Hezbollah is pushing Lebanon’s fragile state and society towards breaking point, straining sectarian and political faultlines as Shi’ite Muslims are displaced and enmity deepens between the Iran-backed group and its opponents.
Of all Lebanon’s many crises since a 1975-90 civil war, the renewed conflict ignited by the Iran war could be its most destabilising, Lebanese analysts and figures from across the political spectrum say.
Israel has threatened Gaza-like destruction and an occupation of the south and there are acrid splits in Lebanon over Hezbollah’s weapons, which the group has refused to give up despite a year-long effort by the state to disarm it peacefully.
Israeli bombardment and orders for people to leave have driven Hezbollah’s Shi’ite constituents into Christian, Druze and other areas, where many blame the group for starting a war in support of Tehran only 15 months after the last one.
Local authorities are vetting displaced people seeking rented accommodation, fearing the presence of anyone who might be a target for Israel.
Tensions between Hezbollah and the government are worsening. The administration led by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and President Joseph Aoun has banned Hezbollah’s military wing, called for talks with Israel and demanded Iran’s ambassador leave.
Hezbollah official Mahmoud Qmati has compared the government to the Vichy France leaders sentenced to death for collaborating with Nazi Germany in World War Two.
“We are capable of turning the country upside down,” he told a Lebanese media outlet although he later said his remarks were taken out of context.
Druze lawmaker Wael Abu Faour says internal tensions are increasing because of political divisions over the war and displacement and “the defiant rhetoric from more than one side”.
“This exacerbates fears for internal stability,” he said.
‘TICKING BOMB’
More than 1,000 people have been killed in Lebanon and over a million – more than a fifth of the population – have been displaced, most of them Shi’ite Muslims, since Hezbollah fired at Israel on March 2 and Israel hit back.
A foreign official said the displacement was straining communal ties and would be “a ticking bomb” if the displaced cannot go home.
Israel’s military has ordered people to leave much of the south as well as Beirut’s Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs and the group’s heartlands in eastern Lebanon.
Israel’s defence minister has said his country intends to create a “security zone” up to the Litani River, which meets the sea about 30 km (19 miles) north of the border with Israel. He has said hundreds of thousands of Shi’ites will not return south of the Litani until security is ensured for northern Israel.
Nadim Gemayel, a Christian lawmaker opposed to Hezbollah, expressed concern that Israel was deliberately pushing Shi’ites into other parts of Lebanon to create conflict with other communities.
Hezbollah has long been at odds with many other Lebanese factions, and has an arsenal more potent than the army’s.
During a brief civil war in 2008, when a Western-backed government tried to outlaw Hezbollah’s communications network, Hezbollah fighters took over Beirut. The government backed down.
Gemayel said tension “already exists, but the ignition hasn’t happened yet, and I hope that it will never happen”.
“If the Israelis stay long, very long in the south, this will be catastrophic for everyone … Lebanon cannot assimilate such a displacement of people,” he said, urging the Lebanese government to “disarm Hezbollah and terminate this war”.
In response to a request for comment on the accusation Israel was seeking to stir sectarian tensions, an Israeli official did not directly address the question but said the only conflict in Lebanon was the one started by Hezbollah and urged the country to eject the group.
The Israeli military said it was operating solely against Hezbollah, and that any allegations it was operating against a specific population were “false and misleading.”
However, an Israeli military official told Reuters that evacuation notices had been issued only to Shi’ite villages in Lebanon’s south, and that Christian villages were still populated and not targeted by Israeli forces.
‘SECTARIAN LOGIC’
Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah said some Lebanese were dealing with the issue of displacement “with sectarian logic”.
“We will overcome this phase because the displaced will return to their land and their homes as soon as the aggression ceases,” he said.
Underlining tensions, residents of a predominantly Christian area north of Beirut brawled with displaced people and demanded they leave on Tuesday when fragments of an Iranian ballistic missile intercepted over Lebanon fell onto the area.
Moves to establish a shelter for displaced in Beirut’s Karantina district, in a predominantly Christian area near the port, prompted objections by Christian politicians. Salam later decreed the site would instead be used to store aid.
In the predominantly Christian neighbourhood of Dekwaneh east of Beirut, about 2,000 displaced Shi’ites are sheltering in a vocational college.
Zeinab al-Meqdad, 50, said her family had encountered no problems in the neighbourhood since fleeing her home in the southern suburbs on March 2.
Antoine Abu Aboud, a local official, said another 1,000 displaced were in hotels and rented accommodation in Dekwaneh.
“There is a war, and the situation is bigger than us. Today, we Lebanese must be patient with one another,” he said.
He said the local council had tightened vetting of people seeking to rent, sending IDs to security forces for checks, saying residents feared anyone who could “represent a danger to their building or lives”.
COEXISTENCE BETWEEN STATE AND HEZBOLLAH ARMS ENDING?
Divisions in Lebanese society are mirrored in the state, which has also been shaken by the fallout of the war.
Hezbollah held decisive sway over the state until being pummelled by Israel in 2024. After that conflict, the government sought to disarm it, but the many rockets fired by Hezbollah since March 2, and its rapid deployment of fighters back to the south, have shaken confidence in the state at home and abroad.
Hezbollah believes the government will ultimately retreat from decisions including the banning of its military wing.
“All the measures taken by the government will be reversed when Israel fails to achieve its objectives,” Fadlallah said. “When we finish confronting this aggression, we, as Lebanese, will address our internal problems.”
Israeli officials have indicated Israel’s offensive will continue beyond the Iran war, and much hinges on what happens in the broader conflict.
A 15-point U.S. proposal for ending the war includes Iran cutting off funding for allies such as Hezbollah, according to Israeli cabinet sources. Iran has indicated that Lebanon must be included in any ceasefire.
Christian lawmaker Alain Aoun said Lebanon was in a transitional phase, with the final terms to be determined by the war.
“The coexistence between the state and Hezbollah arms which we witnessed for decades is nearing its end in one way or another, with all the potential repercussions for society and the political system,” he said.
(Additional reporting by Catherine Cartier and Khalil Ashawi in Beirut, Pesha Magid in Tel Aviv, Editing by Timothy Heritage)
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