By Nolan D. McCaskill
WASHINGTON, Oct 12 (Reuters) – Republicans in the US House of Representatives are defending a narrow majority in November’s midterm elections. History suggests Democrats will gain seats – they would need to net four to win control of the chamber. But Republicans kickstarted a national redistricting battle that could make Democrats’ path to a majority slightly more difficult.
Here are some races to watch:
CAN LAWLER DEFY TRUMP’S GRAVITY?
US Representative Mike Lawler of New York is one of just three Republicans who represent a congressional district Kamala Harris won in 2024. The others are an open seat in Nebraska and a Pennsylvania district US Representative Brian Fitzpatrick is favored to win. That makes Lawler the most vulnerable House Republican up for reelection.
His opponent, Cait Conley, is a combat veteran and national security expert. Democrats have outspent Republicans by about $1 million in this district, but Lawler has a nearly five-to-one cash advantage over Conley.
Two polls conducted in late September show both Lawler and Conley with narrow leads in this toss-up race.
REPUBLICAN REDISTRICTING MAY GO SOUTH IN TEXAS
When Texas Republicans kicked off a national gerrymandering war against Democrats in the hopes of defying historical trends to hold their fragile majority in Washington, they sought to pick up five seats. Yet as Election Day nears, three of those seats are in play – all in South Texas.
Democratic US Representatives Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar are now running in districts President Donald Trump would have won by 10 percentage points in 2024. The third district, which was redrawn from a safe Democratic seat into one Trump also would have carried by 10 points, is an open race between Republican Carlos De La Cruz and Democrat Johnny Garcia.
Gonzalez faces Republican Eric Flores, a former Texas Army National Guard infantry captain and former assistant US attorney. Gonzalez has nearly $2 million more in cash than Flores, and Democrats have spent twice as much to hold the seat as Republicans have spent to flip it.
DAVIS TRIES TO DEFY A NORTH CAROLINA GERRYMANDER
Republicans redrew Democratic US Representative Don Davis’ district, shifting it from a North Carolina district Trump won by 3 points to one he would have carried by double digits.
Davis is seeking reelection anyway. He has outraised his opponent, retired Army Colonel Laurie Buckhout, and reported more cash on hand. Buckhout has largely self-funded her campaign.
A poll released this week showed Davis with a 10-point lead over Buckhout. Democrats have significantly outspent Republicans in this district, $5.8 million to just $600,000.
A GOLDEN FLIP IN MAINE?
The retirement of centrist Democratic US Representative Jared Golden in a district Trump won by 9 points in 2024 opened a key flip opportunity for Republicans. Former Maine Governor Paul LePage is running against progressive state Auditor Matt Dunlap.
LePage led in fundraising through June, more than doubling Dunlap’s $1.2 million and reporting nearly $1.5 million more cash. House Democrats’ campaign arm added Dunlap to its “Red to Blue” program for top offensive opportunities in August.
Polls this month showed Dunlap with a slim lead over LePage.
HIGH HOPES IN OHIO
US Representative Max Miller of Ohio was reelected by 15 points in 2024, though an independent candidate got 13% of the vote. Trump won the district by a smaller margin than Miller, and domestic and child abuse allegations have made the congressman uniquely vulnerable.
Miller has denied the allegations, but US Senator Bernie Moreno, a fellow Ohio Republican, has called on him to resign and end his reelection campaign. Moreno’s daughter is Miller’s ex-wife.
The once safe seat is now seen as a toss-up. Brian Poindexter, the Democratic nominee, is an ironworker, a Brook Park city councilor and a member of Democrats’ Red to Blue program. Democrats have poured $3.4 million into flipping the seat, compared to Republicans’ $730,000.
THIRD TIME’S A CHARM IN IOWA?
US Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa faces a familiar opponent in former state Representative Christina Bohannan, a Democrat who ran unsuccessfully against Miller-Meeks in 2022 and 2024. This time, however, could be different.
Trump is deeply unpopular, and the combination of tariffs and the war in Iran has elevated cost-of-living concerns. Trump’s policies have driven up the price of diesel and fertilizer as voters have said affordability is their top issue this cycle.
Miller-Meeks and Bohannan posted nearly identical fundraising hauls of $7 million through June 30, but Bohannan entered July with a cash advantage of more than $730,000. Fundraising reports due next week will show where each campaign stands financially through September. But Democrats have outspent Republicans here by more than $3 million.
SOUTH FLORIDA REPUBLICAN BREAKS WITH TRUMP ON IMMIGRATION
“Mr. President, some of your immigration efforts have gone too far.” That warning came last month from an incumbent Republican, US Representative Maria Elvira Salazar of Florida, who represents a district Trump won by nearly 15 points in 2024.
Salazar is still favored to win reelection, but her high-profile break with the president on a signature issue is a sign Republicans could lose ground with the Latino voters who helped return Trump to the White House.
Like Salazar, her opponent, Eliott Rodriguez, is a former TV news anchor. Democrats added Rodriguez to their Red to Blue program last week but haven’t invested much money in his race, though they’ve outspent Republicans by about $280,000.
A poll conducted last month showed Salazar with a narrow lead within the margin of error.
WILL VOTERS SEND MGP BACK TO WASHINGTON?
US Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington authored a resolution condemning a fellow Democrat and helped Republicans advance their agenda by bucking her party on traditionally party-line procedural votes. That may help her in a district Trump narrowly won in 2024.
Gluesenkamp Perez finished second in Washington’s top-two primary, trailing state Senate Republican Leader John Braun. Gluesenkamp Perez has a $4 million fundraising advantage over Braun, but Republicans have outspent Democrats by more than $1 million.
A poll conducted in September showed Braun leading by 1 percentage point. The two debated for the first time on Wednesday.
DEMOCRATS RAISING THE BAR IN KENTUCKY?
Democrats only hold one of Kentucky’s six US House seats. But they see an opening in the 6th District, where incumbent Representative Andy Barr is the Republican nominee for US Senate.
The Republican nominee is Ralph Alvarado, a former Kentucky state senator and ex-head of the Tennessee health department. His opponent is Democrat Zach Dembo, an ex-Navy JAG officer and former federal prosecutor.
There’s little daylight between the candidates in fundraising, and both parties have poured roughly the same amount of money into the race.
The latest polls, all of which were sponsored by Democrats, show Dembo leading. Trump won the district by 15 points in 2024.
MAY THE BEST DEM WIN
California’s top-two primary system occasionally pits two members of the same party against each other in a general election. This year, US Representatives Ken Calvert and Young Kim — both Republicans — are running for the same seat after Democrats redrew the state’s congressional map.
US Representative Doris Matsui, a Democrat, is similarly facing Sacramento City Councilor Mai Vang, a democratic socialist. Matsui is backed by the Democratic establishment, including the state party, Governor Gavin Newsom, both US senators and 37 members of California’s congressional delegation.
The outcome won’t affect the balance of power in the House, but it could affect the makeup of a future Democratic majority. Several progressive or democratic socialist candidates have ousted mainstream or moderate Democrats in primaries this year, giving the left wing of the party significant momentum heading into a presidential election cycle in 2028.
(Reporting by Nolan D. McCaskill; Editing by Michael Learmonth and Daniel Wallis)
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