By Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen and Patrick Wingrove
COPENHAGEN, Nov 4 (Reuters) – Obesity drugmaker Novo Nordisk raised its full-year outlook for the third time this year on Wednesday as its Wegovy pill beat third-quarter sales forecasts, boosting the Danish firm’s bid to win back ground from US rival Eli Lilly.
Novo, which is clawing back into the obesity drug race after sliding sales and shares in recent years, upped its 2026 adjusted sales and operating profit forecast to between +2% and -2% at constant exchange rates, from 0% to a 6% fall before.
The drugmaker’s shares jumped as much as 5% on Wednesday.
While Novo remains “a significant underdog” and its injectable products remain well behind Lilly, the third-quarter result was a positive boost for investors, Saxo Bank investment strategist Oscar Barner Bernhardtsen said.
“Novo’s results today are better than expected,” he said in a research note.
Novo rode a wave of demand after launching Wegovy in 2021, becoming Europe’s most valuable listed company in 2023 with a market value above $600 billion. Its shares have since slumped more than 70% from their peak, while Lilly’s have surged.
Lilly also raised its outlook last week after beating profit estimates on booming demand for its injectable weight-loss drugs.
Novo said that the improvement in its third-quarter performance was driven by higher expectations for GLP-1 sales in both the US and international markets. The outlook assumes sales growth internationally and a decline in the United States.
The Wegovy pill has been the star performer for Novo. Launched in the US in January, it brought in 5.39 billion Danish crowns ($810 million) in the quarter, up 53% on the second quarter and above the 4.62 billion consensus.
The US accounted for 4.18 billion crowns and international markets 1.22 billion. US prescriptions reached about 3.6 million in the quarter, and more than 8 million since launch.
CEO Mike Doustdar acknowledged however on a call with reporters that the pill’s prescription curve has flattened in recent weeks, blaming seasonality. He added that Novo hoped for a pick-up around Christmas and the New Year.
PILL SEEN AS GROWTH DRIVER
Novo’s pill makes up only about 6% of expected sales, but analysts see it as the company’s main route back to growth after a two-year slump amid profit warnings and a leadership change.
US sales of injectable Wegovy fell 13% at constant exchange rates, although combined US Wegovy sales rose 21%.
Novo estimates the pill has about 80% of new-to-brand prescriptions in the US across reimbursed, cash-pay and telehealth channels.
The wider Wegovy franchise holds more than 50% of new patient starts among branded obesity drugs, it says. The pill is now sold in eight markets.
Novo is trying to narrow a gap to Lilly, whose rival Foundayo pill is winning a growing share of new prescriptions.
Adjusted operating profit was 31.72 billion Danish crowns, above the 28.39 billion projected by analysts and up 27% at constant exchange rates from a year earlier. Adjusted sales were 79.20 billion crowns against 73.22 billion expected.
“Growth was led by our obesity portfolio, with continued uptake of Wegovy pill in the US and encouraging early launches internationally,” Doustdar said in a statement.
Doustdar declined to give 2027 guidance before February, but pointed to headwinds including loss of semaglutide exclusivity in some international markets, continued pressure in China and a less favourable gross-to-net effect than in 2026.
Novo will also cut US list prices for Wegovy and Ozempic to $675 a month from January 1, reductions of about 50% and 35%, which it said will hit 2027 cash flow.
($1 = 6.6544 Danish crowns)
(Reporting by Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen and Patrick Wingrove; Editing by Terje Solsvik, Louise Heavens and Jan Harvey)
Comments