By Heejin Kim and Kyu-seok Shim
SEOUL, Feb 13 (Reuters) – North Korea will convene the Ninth Party Congress this month, a major political undertaking aimed at showcasing leader Kim Jong Un’s absolute grip on power and his image as a benevolent leader at home and as head of a world-class military.In the run-up to the once-every-five-year gathering, Kim has toured military and economic facilities across the isolated state, from a cruise missile launch site to a large-scale greenhouse farm, to highlight his accomplishments.
The Congress is expected to open on an undisclosed date in late February. It will deliver a verdict on the current five-year development push and outline future priorities.
At the 2021 Congress, Kim said the prior economic plan had failed in “almost every sector” and called for greater investment in heavy industries, while strengthening agriculture and light industry to increase consumer goods supply.
“This quinquennial multi-day event will offer insights into Kim Jong Un’s domestic and foreign policy calculus over the next five years at a critical time domestically and externally,” Rachel Minyoung Lee, a senior fellow for the Stimson Center’s Korea Program and 38 North, said in a note.
SUCCESSION AND ‘PRESIDENT’ TITLE
South Korean lawmakers said this week that Kim appears to be taking steps to firm up his daughter’s position as successor, citing a National Intelligence Service briefing.
The agency believes Kim’s teenage daughter, thought to be named Kim Ju Ae, is already providing input on policy matters, suggesting she may be being groomed as a future leader.
The NIS will closely watch whether Ju Ae attends the congress and how she is presented, including whether she receives an official title.
Analysts have also raised the possibility that the Congress could revive the title of “president” for Kim – a designation historically associated with state founder Kim Il Sung, Kim’s grandfather. If Kim Ju Ae eventually became leader it would extend the family dynasty to a fourth generation.
MILITARY PARADE
North Korea is expected to stage a major military parade to mark the Congress and highlight expanding nuclear and conventional weapons capabilities.
Analysts say Kim will be determined to show he is not at risk of sharing the fate of Venezuela’s deposed leader after U.S. President Donald Trump ordered special forces to seize Nicolas Maduro in a raid last month.
“The U.S. strike on Venezuela, a non-nuclear power, would have accelerated North Korea’s obsession with nuclear weapons to protect the country from such military operations,” Kim Yeoul-soo at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs said.
The Congress offers Kim an opportunity to underline why nuclear weapons are needed as a powerful deterrent, said Kim at the think-tank affiliated with South Korea’s Defence Ministry.
Tae Yong-ho, one of the highest ranking former North Korean officials to defect to the South, said Pyongyang considers “what happened to Iraq and Libya, and especially the war in Ukraine, was all because they did not have the deterrence to protect themselves”.
NUCLEAR SUBMARINES A ‘BIG DEAL’
Despite advances in nuclear-capable missiles, hypersonic missiles and powerful artillery that has supported Russia’s war against Ukraine, Kim wants more, said Tae, who served as Pyongyang’s envoy to London.
Securing submarines both powered and armed with nuclear technology is at the top of Kim’s wish list and completing one in the next five years would be “a big deal,” he said.
Kim is expected to promote achievements of the past five years and unveil new strategic weapons. Pyongyang may test-fire a new solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile such as the Hwasong-20, Yang Uk of the Seoul-based Asan Institute for Policy Studies said in a report.
North Korea is also likely to emphasise its stronger ties to Russia, portraying it as a blood-tied alliance, to rally anti-U.S. rhetoric, said Taehwa Hong, a fellow in the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
MESSAGING TO SEOUL AND WASHINGTON
The Congress may also signal foreign-policy messages directed at Washington and Seoul. Kim has declared South Korea a “hostile” nation and rebuffed outreach from South Korean President Lee Jae Myung.
Trump has made it clear he wants to meet Kim again, to resume summit talks that collapsed in 2019 over sanctions and denuclearisation.
Kim has said there was no reason to avoid talks with the United States if Washington drops demands that North Korea gives up nuclear weapons.
Experts are divided over whether the U.S. raid on Venezuela now makes diplomacy more or less likely. Tae expects Pyongyang to shun U.S. outreach to avoid looking weak.
But Hong Min, at the Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul, believes Kim might seek to “manage” Trump by engaging in some limited contact to prevent the U.S. from becoming excessively hostile.
(Reporting by Heejin Kim and Kyu-seok Shim. Additional reporting by Yunji HaEditing by Jack Kim, Ed Davies and Michael Perry)
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