BUDAPEST, April 10 (Reuters) – Hungarians vote in a landmark parliamentary election on Sunday that is being closely watched in the European Union, the United States, Russia and beyond.
Opinion polls suggest that Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his nationalist Fidesz party will lose power after 16 years to the centre-right, pro-European Union Tisza party, led by former Orban loyalist Peter Magyar.
Here is some key information on Hungary’s political system and a list of possible outcomes of the election.
HOW THE VOTING GOES
Hungarian voters will elect 199 members of parliament – 106 of them in single-member constituencies under a first-past-the-post system and the other 93 from national party and ethnic minority lists.
Orban’s government gave ethnic Hungarians living abroad the right to citizenship, and they can vote on party lists, by letter. According to National Election Office data, close to 500,000 such citizens have been registered for the 2026 election. The vast majority of them traditionally support Orban’s Fidesz.
Those with a registered Hungarian address must vote in person – at a polling station in Hungary or, if abroad, at one of Hungary’s official representations.
For individual parties, the threshold to get into parliament is winning 5% of votes.
Polling stations open on Sunday at 6 a.m. (0400 GMT) and close at 7 p.m. (1700 GMT). The results should become clear by late Sunday evening.
WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE ELECTION?
President Tamas Sulyok will convene the new parliament within 30 days of the election, probably in May. In 2022 the election took place on April 3 and the new parliament convened on May 2.
The prime minister is elected by parliament, with a simple majority of votes. Hungary’s president submits a proposal for prime minister — usually the candidate of the winning party – and parliament then votes on the nomination.
If parliament fails to elect the person proposed, the president presents a new proposal within 15 days.
If parliament fails to elect a new prime minister again, the president can dissolve parliament and call a new election.
WHAT ARE THE POSSIBLE OUTCOMES OF THE ELECTION?
Budapest-based think tank Political Capital outlined what it sees as the possible scenarios on Friday:
Two-thirds constitutional Fidesz majority: This would allow Fidesz to further reshape institutions without constraint and institutional autonomy in Hungary would decline further.
Significant Fidesz majority: A significant majority would allow Fidesz to continue its current policies, with foreign policy likely remaining largely unchanged.
Narrow Fidesz majority: This would create a new and uncertain political situation, with a fragile balance of power and increased pressure from the opposition.
Two-thirds Tisza majority: This would enable deep institutional reform and allow the new government to restructure key institutions.
Significant Tisza majority: This would allow for limited yet meaningful change but would not provide a robust legal mandate for deep institutional reform. Political dynamics would remain tense.
Narrow Tisza majority: This would create an unstable and high-risk governing situation with a fragile balance of power. The election results could be contested, possibly leading to mass protests.
No clear winner: A stalemate would result in a fragmented political landscape, where no major actor can form a stable government alone. The far-right Mi Hazank (Our Homeland) party could become a kingmaker and the formation of coalitions could be uncertain and prolonged.
(Reporting by Krisztina ThanEditing by Gareth Jones)
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