By Aaron Ross
NAIROBI, May 14 (Reuters) – Areas of southern Somalia are at risk of famine, two global food security monitors said on Thursday, with one district reaching a level of hunger not seen in the country since 2022.
One of the world’s most food-insecure nations because of frequent drought, conflict and poverty, Somalia last experienced famine in 2011, when around 250,000 people died, and came close in 2017 and 2022.
This time, global cuts to foreign aid and the impacts of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran are complicating efforts to respond to food shortages caused by multiple failed rain seasons and ongoing insecurity.
More than 37% of young children in the Burhakaba District of southern Somalia’s Bay Region, which is estimated to have a population of around 200,000, suffer from acute malnutrition, according to a report by the U.N.-backed Integrated Food Security Phase Classification.
“The IPC analysis found Burhakaba District to be at risk of Famine under a plausible worst-case scenario offailing Gu (season) rains, soaring food prices and below expected delivery of humanitarian food security assistance,” the report said.
“FAMINE COULD RAPIDLY EMERGE”
Famine occurs when at least 20% of households in an area face an extreme lack of food, at least 30% of children suffer from acute malnutrition, and two out of every 10,000 people are dying each day because of hunger.
FEWS NET, a U.S.-funded monitor focused on providing early warning about hunger crises, said in a statement that its most likely scenario assumed seasonal rains would improve enough to temporarily stabilise conditions but that a credible alternative scenario involved poor rains leading to another failed harvest.
“If the harvest fails, Famine could rapidly emerge in these areas,” FEWS NET spokesperson Hannah Button said, referring to agro-pastoral areas in the Bay, Bakool and Gedo Regions of southern Somalia.
The number of Somalis facing crisis levels of food insecurity or worse was about 6 million, according to the IPC report. That is lower than the 6.5 million reported in February but worse than the projected 5.5 million for this period due to worse-than-expected rains.
Global cuts to foreign aid, including by the United States, have substantially reduced support to Somalia.
The IPC report said humanitarian assistance for the April-June period had increased significantly, but still covered only 12% of those facing crisis levels of food insecurity or worse.
Overall humanitarian funding for Somalia in 2026 stands at $160 million and was $531 million last year, according to U.N. data, compared to $2.38 billion during the last drought in 2022.
“Somalia risks becoming one of the first major crises of the ‘post-aid era’: a place where needs are growing, survival is becoming more expensive, and the response is shrinking,” said Daud Jiran, the Somalia country director at Mercy Corps, an aid group.
(Reporting by Aaron Ross, editing by Gareth Jones and Timothy Heritage)
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