Sept 7 (Reuters) – Only about 50 of the 435 races for the House of Representatives are expected to be competitive on the November 3 U.S. midterm ballot, but they could decide whether Democrats gain the three seats needed to reclaim control of the chamber from Republicans.
Here is a look at some of the races that will determine the outcome:
ARIZONA
This battleground state includes two of the most competitive House districts in the country.
In Phoenix’s northern suburbs, Democrat Amish Shah, a former state representative and emergency-room doctor, and Republican Jay Feely, a former NFL kicker, face off for an open seat.
In a Tucson-based district, Democrat JoAnna Mendoza, a retired Marine drill instructor, is taking on Republican Representative Juan Ciscomani, a moderate.
CALIFORNIA
At the urging of U.S. President Donald Trump, several Republican-led states have redrawn their district maps to boost their chances of retaining control of the House, in a departure from the usual practice of setting those boundaries once a decade to reflect population shifts.
Democratic-led California pushed through a redistricting of its own last year in response to the moves by Republican-led states, which analysts say could allow them to pick up five more of the state’s 52 seats from Republicans.
Among the most endangered Republicans is Representative David Valadao, a centrist who has survived previous close elections in this Central Valley seat. He faces Democrat Randy Villegas, a school board member.
Republican Darrell Issa opted to retire rather than run for reelection in a less hospitable seat. Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond and Democratic San Diego City Council member Marni von Wilpert are competing to take his place.
Democrats are on defense east of San Francisco, where incumbent Representative Adam Gray, who won his last race by 187 votes, will try to hold off Republican Kevin Lincoln, a former mayor of Stockton.
COLORADO
Republican Representative Gabe Evans won his 2024 race by less than a percentage point. He faces Democrat Manny Rutinel, a state representative. Trump’s immigration crackdown has been a major issue in this district north of Denver, which is 40% Hispanic.
FLORIDA
Florida’s Republican-led redistricting could leave the state with a House delegation of 24 Republicans and four Democrats.
Democratic Representative Kathy Castor now must run for reelection in a Tampa-based district that includes more Republican-leaning areas. She will face Republican Mike Beltran, a former state representative.
Democratic Representative Jared Moskowitz moved to a new district along the Atlantic coast north of Miami. He will face Republican Scott Singer, the former mayor of Boca Raton.
And in a redrawn district that stretches from Palm Beach to the Gulf Coast, voters will choose between Democrat Pia Dandiya, an educator, and Republican Casey Askar, a veteran.
IOWA
Though Iowa has trended steadily Republican over the past decade, concerns over Trump’s tariffs and higher fuel and fertilizer costs stemming from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran have put a range of races across the farm state in play.
Three of the state’s four House districts will be competitive this year.
In the southeast corner of the state, Democrat Christina Bohannan is challenging Republican Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks for a third time, after losing by 799 votes in 2024.
The state’s northeast corner hosts a matchup for an open seat between Democratic state Representative Lindsay James, a Presbyterian minister, and former Republican state Representative Joe Mitchell.
Democrats are running another member of the clergy, Lutheran pastor Sarah Trone Garriott, to take on Republican Representative Zach Nunn in a Des Moines-based district.
MICHIGAN
Republican Representative Tom Barrett, narrowly elected in 2024, faces Democrat William Lawrence, a progressive climate activist, in this Lansing-area district.
NEW JERSEY
Republican U.S. Representative Tom Kean Jr., son of a former governor, has faced scrutiny for an extended absence from the House. Kean later said he was receiving treatment for depression. Navy pilot Rebecca Bennett is the Democratic nominee.
NEW YORK
Democrat Cait Conley, a former national security official, is challenging Representative Mike Lawler, one of the more moderate House Republicans, in this Hudson Valley district.
OHIO
Republican redistricting could complicate the reelection prospects of Democrat Marcy Kaptur, who first won office in 1982. She faces a rematch with Republican Derek Merrin, a former state representative.
PENNSYLVANIA
Three Republican incumbents in Pennsylvania will face tough reelection battles this year.
In an Allentown-based district, Representative Ryan Mackenzie, who is finishing up his first term, faces Democrat Bob Brooks, a firefighter union leader who is emphasizing his blue-collar background.
In a neighboring district that covers the northeastern corner of the state, Democratic Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti is challenging another freshman, Republican Representative Rob Bresnahan.
Republican Representative Scott Perry faces former news anchor Janelle Stelson in a rematch in Pennsylvania’s Harrisburg-area district after narrowly defeating her in 2024.
TEXAS
Republican-led Texas imposed a new congressional map that could help the party pick up as many as five House seats. But three districts in the south of the state are shaping up as competitive races.
In a district that runs along the border with Mexico, Republican Tano Tijerina, the top elected official in Webb County, is trying to unseat Democratic Representative Henry Cuellar.
Along the southern Gulf Coast, Republican Eric Flores, a former federal prosecutor, is challenging Democratic Representative Vicente Gonzalez.
In a neighboring inland district, Democrats have recruited a Tejano musician, Bobby Pulido, to take on Republican Representative Monica De La Cruz.
VIRGINIA
In the Virginia Beach-area district, Republican Representative Jen Kiggans will again face Democrat Elaine Luria, whom she defeated in 2022.
WISCONSIN
In western Wisconsin, Democrat Rebecca Cooke is hoping voter unhappiness with rising farm costs will help her unseat Republican Representative Derrick Van Orden.
(Reporting by Andy Sullivan; Editing by Howard Goller)
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