TAIPEI (Reuters) – Economic growth in trade-dependent Taiwan was expected to slow in the third quarter with exports still robust on AI demand but moderating, while domestic investment and consumption are losing steam, a Reuters poll showed on Monday.
Gross domestic product (GDP) in July-September was expected to expand 3.4% from a year earlier, down from 5.06% growth in the second quarter, according to the median forecast of a poll of 24 economists.
The poll forecasts for preliminary GDP data, due on Thursday, ranged from an expansion of just 2.2% to as much as 5%.
Third-quarter exports rose 8.1% year-on-year, slightly slower than the first-quarter’s annual expansion of 9.9%. That was powered by the island’s tech-heavy exporters such as chipmakers, who rode a wave of AI demand.
The island is home to the world’s largest contract chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, a major supplier for such companies as Apple and Nvidia.
Analyst Kevin Wang of Taishin Securities Investment said exports had moderated while private investment and consumption fizzled in the third quarter.
“Exports grew but moderated in the third quarter, and consumption and investment were also rather ordinary,” he said.
The second half of the year is traditionally the peak season for Taiwanese exporters as they ramp up production for the year-end holiday season in major Western markets.
The government’s statistics bureau in August trimmed its forecast for full-year 2024 growth to 3.90% versus a previous projection of 3.94%. Last year, the economy expanded 1.31%, a 14-year low.
Sluggish growth in China, Taiwan’s largest export market, has not helped. The Chinese economy grew in the third quarter at the slowest pace since early 2023.
Taiwan’s preliminary GDP reading will be released in a statement with minimal commentary. Revised figures will be released a few weeks later, with more details and forecasts.
(Poll compiled by Anant Chandak and Veronica Khongwir; Reporting by Ben Blanchard and Jeanny Kao; Editing by Nicholas Yong)
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