By Dave Sherwood and Matt Spetalnick
HAVANA/WASHINGTON (Reuters) – In Cuba, all eyes are on the U.S. presidential election.
Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican contender Donald Trump have said little about the Caribbean island nation, a longtime U.S. foe just 90 miles (145 km) from its border.
But this election, Cubans and on-island analysts told Reuters, could be decisive as its communist-run government struggles to beat an economic crisis that has increasingly made life unbearable for many of its residents.
For decades, the United States has enforced a trade embargo against the island that complicates Cuba’s global financial transactions. Trump’s designation of Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism and reinstatement of other restrictions during his 2017-2021 presidency snuffed out an historic rapprochement under former President Barack Obama, under whom President Joe Biden served as vice president.
Both candidates said in brief statements they would continue to draw a hard line on Cuba.
“Cuba is not prepared, nor will it be prepared to resist any more pressure (from the United States),” said Carlos Alzugaray, a former Cuban diplomat who is now an independent political analyst.
Alzugaray said a second Trump presidency “does not bode well.” He had more hope for a Harris presidency, which he said could ease sanctions to avoid another potential international conflict so close to U.S. shores.
But he said there were no guarantees.
“Harris could also reason that (Cuba’s) government is at the point of collapse, so why invest political capital in saving it?” Alzugaray told Reuters.
In Cuba, U.S. policy can mean life-changing decisions.
Trump has said he would eliminate Biden’s parole program, which has allowed tens of thousands of Cubans with U.S. sponsors to enter the country legally.
“I’m for Kamala,” said Libia Morales, a 63-year old Cuban from Cienfuegos who waited for a visa appointment outside the U.S. embassy.
“Trump is already saying he will deport all immigrants and crush us even more with the blockade.”
Cuba’s spiraling social and economic crisis came to a head this month when its electrical grid collapsed, blacking out the island for days and sparking scattered protests.
Cuba blamed U.S. sanctions for complicating the purchase of fuel and spare parts for its oil-fired power plants. Critics say mismanagement and an inefficient state-run economy are also to blame.
Whatever the roots of the crisis, the result is a record-breaking migration wave that has drained Cuba of its once youthful workforce – many of whom, in turn, arrive on the U.S. border, a problem for both countries, analysts say.
Upwards of a million people have left the island since 2020, according to Cuban official statistics, nearly a tenth of its population, an exodus with few comparisons outside of wartime.
Fabio Fernandez, a professor of history with the University of Havana, said any new limits on Cuban migration could bring dire consequences.
“If there is no escape valve for migration it could be a problem for Cuba,” Fernandez said.
BACKBURNER
On the U.S. side, Cuba has been largely absent from campaign policy and rhetoric.
During the 2020 campaign, then-President Trump blasted leftist leaders in Cuba and Venezuela, winning over much of Miami’s large Cuban American community. But this time, Florida is widely seen as more firmly in Trump’s camp, which some experts say is the reason both campaigns have largely left the issue on the backburner.
Trump sanctions on Cuba during his first administration “ended the disastrous Obama policy that ultimately flowed funds to the repressive Castro regime,” Republican National Committee spokesperson Anna Kelly told Reuters.
“Under weak Kamala Harris, our adversaries, including Cuba, are emboldened and everyone is less safe. President Trump will fix it starting Nov. 5.”
Kelly did not respond to a question on whether a second Trump administration would restore restrictions on Cuba that Biden had modestly rolled back, including the flow of remittances.
Harris’ campaign also suggested she would maintain pressure on Cuba.
“Vice President Harris stands with the people of Cuba as they fight for their rights after decades of repression and economic suffering at the hands of the communist regime,” said Morgan Finkelstein, national security spokesperson for the Harris campaign.
“She will stand up to all authoritarians — including the very leaders that Trump has praised and embraced.”
Finkelstein did not respond to questions about whether Harris, as president, would stick to Biden’s Cuba policy or take a revised approach.
(Reporting by Dave Sherwood and Matt Spetalnick; Additional reporting by Ted Hesson in Washington and Nelson Acosta, Carlos Carrillo, Mario Fuentes and Anett Rios in Havana; Editing by Daniel Wallis)
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